ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN OCT 05 2003 KATE CONTINUES TO TURN AND ACCELERATE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 350/9. KATE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF THE MAJOR TROUGH OFF THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT. EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH SOME UNDERSTANDABLE SPEED DIFFERENCES AFTER THAT. THE GFS TAKES KATE A LITTLE QUICKER INTO THE WESTERLIES AND ENDS UP BEING FASTER THAN THE UKMET. SINCE KATE ALREADY SEEMS TO BE TO THE RIGHT OF THE GFS GUIDANCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TO THE SPEED OF THE UKMET SOLUTION. KATE COULD PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO NEWFOUNDLAND TO PRODUCE GALES THERE. THE EYE OF KATE IS CLOSING UP AND OUTFLOW IS SUPPRESSED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT BY THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 77 KT...AND SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 80 KT. BY 48 HOURS KATE SHOULD BE OVER 12C WATER AND BE EXTRATROPICAL. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT KATE WILL BECOME A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL STORM AND SO THE FORECAST WINDS ARE ONLY SLOWLY LOWERED. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/2100Z 31.9N 56.5W 80 KT 12HR VT 06/0600Z 33.7N 56.6W 75 KT 24HR VT 06/1800Z 37.0N 56.0W 70 KT 36HR VT 07/0600Z 41.0N 53.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 07/1800Z 47.5N 47.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 08/1800Z 58.0N 30.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 09/1800Z 60.0N 10.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 10/1800Z...EXTRATROPICAL EAST OF GREENWICH MERIDIAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC