Hurricane KATE

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HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 05 2003
 
KATE CONTINUES TO TURN AND ACCELERATE.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
350/9.  KATE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF THE
MAJOR TROUGH OFF THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT.  EXCEPT FOR THE
NOGAPS THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48
HOURS...WITH SOME UNDERSTANDABLE SPEED DIFFERENCES AFTER THAT.  THE
GFS TAKES KATE A LITTLE QUICKER INTO THE WESTERLIES AND ENDS UP
BEING FASTER THAN THE UKMET.  SINCE KATE ALREADY SEEMS TO BE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE GFS GUIDANCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TO THE
SPEED OF THE UKMET SOLUTION.  KATE COULD PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
NEWFOUNDLAND TO PRODUCE GALES THERE.
 
THE EYE OF KATE IS CLOSING UP AND OUTFLOW IS SUPPRESSED IN THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT BY THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 77 KT...AND SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 80 KT. BY 48 HOURS KATE SHOULD BE OVER
12C WATER AND BE EXTRATROPICAL. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
KATE WILL BECOME A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL STORM AND SO THE FORECAST
WINDS ARE ONLY SLOWLY LOWERED.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/2100Z 31.9N  56.5W    80 KT
 12HR VT     06/0600Z 33.7N  56.6W    75 KT
 24HR VT     06/1800Z 37.0N  56.0W    70 KT
 36HR VT     07/0600Z 41.0N  53.0W    65 KT
 48HR VT     07/1800Z 47.5N  47.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     08/1800Z 58.0N  30.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     09/1800Z 60.0N  10.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     10/1800Z...EXTRATROPICAL EAST OF GREENWICH MERIDIAN
 
 
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