ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN OCT 05 2003 DVORAK NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN...WITH CI NUMBERS OF 4.5 FROM TAFB AND 5.0 FROM SAB. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 85 KT. AFTER 24 HOURS WATER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL RAPIDLY AND THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE. COUNTERING THAT WILL BE AN ACCELERATION TO 30-40 KT OF TRANSLATION AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...AND KEEPS THE CYCLONE A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE UKMET DOES HAVE A TRACK THAT IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO NEWFOUNDLAND...SO AN IMPACT THERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT YET. AFTER THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFS SOULTION. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT KATE WILL REMAIN A DISTINCT EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE INTO THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1500Z 31.2N 56.3W 85 KT 12HR VT 06/0000Z 32.5N 56.8W 80 KT 24HR VT 06/1200Z 35.4N 56.4W 75 KT 36HR VT 07/0000Z 39.5N 54.5W 70 KT 48HR VT 07/1200Z 45.0N 50.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 08/1200Z 57.0N 32.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 09/1200Z 60.0N 7.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 10/1200Z...EXTRATROPICAL EAST OF GREENWICH MERIDIAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC