Hurricane KATE

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HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 05 2003
 
DVORAK NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN...WITH CI NUMBERS OF 4.5 FROM TAFB
AND 5.0 FROM SAB.  ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO
85 KT.  AFTER 24 HOURS WATER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL
RAPIDLY AND THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE.  COUNTERING THAT WILL BE AN
ACCELERATION TO 30-40 KT OF TRANSLATION AND EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR
THE FIRST 48 HOURS...AND KEEPS THE CYCLONE A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.  THE UKMET DOES HAVE A TRACK THAT IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NEWFOUNDLAND...SO AN IMPACT THERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT YET.  AFTER
THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFS SOULTION. 
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT KATE WILL REMAIN A DISTINCT
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE INTO THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/1500Z 31.2N  56.3W    85 KT
 12HR VT     06/0000Z 32.5N  56.8W    80 KT
 24HR VT     06/1200Z 35.4N  56.4W    75 KT
 36HR VT     07/0000Z 39.5N  54.5W    70 KT
 48HR VT     07/1200Z 45.0N  50.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     08/1200Z 57.0N  32.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     09/1200Z 60.0N   7.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     10/1200Z...EXTRATROPICAL EAST OF GREENWICH MERIDIAN
 
 
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