Hurricane KATE
ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 04 2003
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT KATE HAS
CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN AT T5.5/102KT WHILE THE DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE
DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO T5.0/90 KT. HOWEVER, A NEARLY SOLID RING OF
COLDER TOPPED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AROUND THE WELL-DEFINED
20-25 NMI DIAMETER EYE SINCE THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 100 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND HAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. THE TRACK WAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD OR LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE MORE
SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION. HOWEVER...BY 36-48 HOURS...THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK. ALL OF THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT KATE SHOULD BEGIN TO RECURVE BY 24-36
HOURS...AND THEN RAPIDLY ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS AS
THE HURRICANE GETS CAPTURED BY AN APPROACHING STRONG LONGWAVE
TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUDNAY.
ALSO...WHILE KATE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY 72
HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN BEFORE THAT
TIME...AND A 60 H POSITION WOULD BE NEAR 43N 55W. THIS MOTION WOULD
TAKE KATE VERY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST TIP OF NEWFOUNDLAND BETWEEN 60-72
HOURS.
KATE HAS MAINTAINED A TRACK OVER WARM WATER AND THIS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE 36 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...BY 24 HOURS...INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN A STEADY BUT SLOW
WEAKENING TREND.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/1500Z 30.1N 53.3W 100 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 30.4N 55.0W 100 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 31.7N 56.6W 95 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 33.5N 57.3W 90 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 37.0N 57.2W 80 KT
72HR VT 07/1200Z 47.5N 51.0W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 08/1200Z 56.5N 34.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 09/1200Z 62.5N 8.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
NNNN