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Hurricane KATE (Text)

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HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI OCT 03 2003

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10.  THE FORECAST SCENARIO IS THE SAME AS
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  KATE IS FORECAST TO MOVE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE AND THEN ACCELERATE TOWARD THE
NORTH AFTER 48 HOURS AND TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AFTER 96 HOURS AS A
VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE.
 
KATE CONTINUES TO HAVE A CLASSICAL HURRICANE STRUCTURE...WITH A
WELL-DEFINED EYE EMBEDDED IN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...ALTHOUGH THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE CDO HAS ERODED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES
AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 100 KT.  THERE IS LESS THAN 24
HOURS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AFTER WHICH KATE
SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  FINALLY KATE
IS FORECAST TO BE EXTRATROPICAL BY THE TIME IT MOVES NORTH OF 50
DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE.

NOTE THAT THE FORECAST TRACK IS RATHER CLOSE TO EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND
AFTER 72 HOURS. 

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0300Z 29.9N  50.8W   100 KT
 12HR VT     04/1200Z 30.1N  52.4W   105 KT
 24HR VT     05/0000Z 30.7N  54.4W   100 KT
 36HR VT     05/1200Z 31.8N  55.8W    90 KT
 48HR VT     06/0000Z 34.0N  56.5W    80 KT
 72HR VT     07/0000Z 43.0N  54.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     08/0000Z 53.5N  45.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     09/0000Z 61.5N  23.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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