ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2003 SATELLITE IMAGES AFTER THE ECLIPSE INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC WITH A DISTINCT EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SUGGESTING THAT WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND THE HURRICANE IS HEADING TOWARD WARMER WATERS. THEREFORE... SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THAT PERIOD. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING COULD BEGIN. KATE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE. AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...THE ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN WOULD ALLOW KATE TO TURN GRADUALLY TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS AND THE CONSENSUS GUNS AND GUNA. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFDL TURNS THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD SOONER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS RUN. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0900Z 30.1N 43.4W 75 KT 12HR VT 02/1800Z 29.8N 45.5W 80 KT 24HR VT 03/0600Z 29.8N 48.0W 80 KT 36HR VT 03/1800Z 30.0N 50.0W 80 KT 48HR VT 04/0600Z 30.5N 52.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 05/0600Z 32.5N 56.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 06/0600Z 36.0N 58.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 07/0600Z 40.0N 58.5W 70 KT NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC