Hurricane KATE

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HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2003
 
KATE HAS DEVELOPED A CLOUD-FILLED EYE WITH A GOOD BANDING STRUCTURE. 
WHILE THE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE ONLY -50C TO -60C...THE STRUCTURE IS
GOOD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM
TAFB AND SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA.  BASED ON THE ESTIMATES AND THE
PRESENCE OF THE EYE...KATE IS UPGRADED TO A 65 KT HURRICANE.

KATE HAS MOVED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH THE
INITIAL MOTION NOW 255/11.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO CHANGE TO
THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  KATE IS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS ALONG 28N-29N 
BETWEEN 38W-51W.  THE RIDGE SHOULD STEER KATE ON A GENERAL
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR 48-72 HR...AS INDICATED BY ALL THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS.  AFTER 72 HR...MOST GUIDANCE TURNS THE STORM
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.
THE TRACK IS NUDGED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR
THE FIRST 96 HR AND IS MORE OR LESS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
 
WHILE THE DETAILS DIFFER...LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST GENERALLY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THROUGH 72 HR.  THIS WOULD ALLOW KATE
TO STRENGTHEN IF THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH.  THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE STORM OVER 27C SSTS...SO GIVEN
THAT AND CURRENT TRENDS THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AGAIN NUDGED
UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF KATE
DOES NOT DIP AS FAR SOUTH AS FORECAST...IT WILL STAY OVER COOLER
SSTS WHICH WOULD AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION.  THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS FORECAST KATE TO ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT WESTERLIES AFTER 72
HR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR WEAKENING DURING THAT
TIME.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/2100Z 31.5N  41.6W    65 KT
 12HR VT     02/0600Z 31.2N  43.3W    75 KT
 24HR VT     02/1800Z 30.6N  45.8W    80 KT
 36HR VT     03/0600Z 30.5N  48.0W    85 KT
 48HR VT     03/1800Z 30.5N  50.4W    85 KT
 72HR VT     04/1800Z 31.5N  53.5W    80 KT
 96HR VT     05/1800Z 33.5N  56.0W    75 KT
120HR VT     06/1800Z 36.5N  57.5W    70 KT
 
 
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