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Hurricane KATE (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2003

ANALYSES FROM THE CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW THAT THE
VERTICAL SHEAR OVER KATE HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST
24 HR...AND THE STORM IS RESPONDING.  WHILE THE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE
RELATIVELY WARM...KATE NOW HAS AN EXCELLENT BANDING PATTERN WITH A
FORMATIVE EYE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB...AND BASED ON THAT AND THE DEVELOPING EYE THE MAXIMUM
WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 60 KT.  CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD OVER THE WEST
QUADRANT AND POOR ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/10.  KATE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS ALONG 30N BETWEEN 38W-48W.  THE RIDGE SHOULD
STEER KATE ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR 48-72
HR...AS INDICATED BY ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.  THINGS GET A LITTLE
NEBULOUS AFTER 72 HR AS KATE APPROACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE
RIDGE.  MOST GUIDANCE TURNS THE STORM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. 
HOWEVER...THE NOGAPS CALLS FOR A CONTINUED WESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DUE TO A SECOND VORTEX THAT THE MODEL DEVELOPS
SOUTHEAST OF KATE.  THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS DUBIOUS AT THIS
TIME...SO THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A NORTHWESTWARD TURN. 
OVERALL...THE TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND DOWN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

WHILE THE DETAILS DIFFER...LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST GENERALLY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THROUGH 72 HR.  THIS WOULD ALLOW KATE
TO STRENGTHEN IF THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH.  THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE STORM OVER 27C SSTS...SO GIVEN
THAT AND CURRENT TRENDS THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARD
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF KATE DOES
NOT DIP AS FAR SOUTH AS FORECAST...IT WILL STAY OVER 25-26C SSTS
WHICH WOULD AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST KATE TO ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT WESTERLIES AFTER 72 HR...SO
THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR WEAKENING DURING THAT TIME.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/1500Z 32.2N  40.2W    60 KT
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 31.9N  42.0W    65 KT
 24HR VT     02/1200Z 31.5N  44.3W    70 KT
 36HR VT     03/0000Z 31.2N  46.8W    75 KT
 48HR VT     03/1200Z 31.0N  49.1W    75 KT
 72HR VT     04/1200Z 31.5N  52.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     05/1200Z 32.5N  55.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     06/1200Z 35.0N  57.0W    65 KT
 
 
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