ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2003 THE CLOUD PATTERN OVERALL IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND A CENTER. IN FACT...WE COULD MAKE A CASE FOR A BANDING TYPE EYE. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP AT THIS TIME AND T-NUMBERS ARE 3.5 AND 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND KATE IS MOVING TOWARD WARMER WATERS...A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY SHIPS MODEL. THE GFDL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING KATE TO HURRICANE STATUS IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AND INCREASES THE WINDS TO 87 KNOTS IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. MAYBE THIS IS TOO MUCH BUT THE GFDL HAS BEEN FAIRLY GOOD IN SHOWING INTENSITY TRENDS. KATE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE UPPER-LOW TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THERE IS NO CHOICE BUT ADJUST THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SOUTHWARD OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE LATEST GFS..GFDL...NOGAPS AND THE CONSENSUS GUNA AND GUNS. THE TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IN ABOUT 4 TO 5 DAYS IS ALSO INDICATED. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0900Z 32.4N 38.9W 50 KT 12HR VT 01/1800Z 32.1N 40.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 02/0600Z 31.5N 43.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 02/1800Z 31.0N 45.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 03/0600Z 31.0N 47.5W 65 KT 72HR VT 04/0600Z 31.0N 51.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 05/0600Z 32.0N 54.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 06/0600Z 35.0N 57.0W 60 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC