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Tropical Storm KATE (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2003
 
A RECENT TRMM OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT THE EYE FEATURE SEEN EARLIER
HAS BECOME A BIT RAGGED.  OTHERWISE...KATE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE STORM FEATURES A
WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH A LARGE OUTER BAND IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE NORTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES REMAIN 55
KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 055/16.  THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 33N 40W THAT IS CURRENTLY
STEERING KATE NORTHEASTWARD.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS LOW
TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND INTERACT WITH KATE.  HOWEVER... WHAT
HAPPENS DURING THE INTERACTION HAS BECOME LESS CLEAR.  THE GFDL...
NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODELS TURN KATE NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS CHANGED ITS FORECAST AND
HAS JOINED THE UKMET IN FORECASTING AN EASTWARD MOTION...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING KATE REACHING 20W BEFORE IT TURNS NORTHWARD.  THE
OVERALL GUIDANCE PATTERN NOW RESEMBLES A SQUASHED SPIDER...WHICH IS
OFTEN THE SIGN THAT THE MOTION WILL BE SLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL STICK WITH THE SCENARIO OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST...BUT AT A MUCH SLOWER
SPEED THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

KATE IS HOLDING TOGETHER DESPITE 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE
SHIPS... GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL FORECAST DECREASING
SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 48 HR AS KATE INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LOW. 
SHOULD THIS VERIFY...KATE WOULD LIKELY STRENGTHEN...AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING.  THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT KATE COULD STRENGTHEN FURTHER IF THE STORM STRUCTURE IS NOT
DISRUPTED TOO MUCH BY THE UPPER LOW.  AFTER 72 HR...KATE WILL BE
NEAR OR OVER 25-26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/2100Z 29.8N  36.0W    60 KT
 12HR VT     30/0600Z 30.3N  35.3W    60 KT
 24HR VT     30/1800Z 30.9N  35.2W    65 KT
 36HR VT     01/0600Z 31.5N  35.5W    65 KT
 48HR VT     01/1800Z 31.8N  36.1W    70 KT
 72HR VT     02/1800Z 32.5N  37.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     03/1800Z 33.0N  39.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     04/1800Z 34.0N  42.0W    60 KT
 
 
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