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Tropical Storm KATE (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2003
 
ALTHOUGH ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW 30
KT OF SHEAR OVER KATE...THE STORM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING.  RECENT SSM/I OVERPASSES SHOW A BANDING-TYPE EYE...AND
THERE HAVE BEEN HINTS OF A DIMPLE/WARM SPOT IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED
IMAGERY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT...AND BASED ON
THIS AND THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION SINCE 12Z...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...050/17.  OTHER THAN THIS...THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID/UPPER-
LEVEL LOW NEAR 34N 40W THAT IS CURRENTLY STEERING KATE
NORTHEASTWARD.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS LOW TO MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD...WITH KATE TURNING NORTHWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD ON
ITS EASTERN SIDE.  EVENTUALLY...KATE SHOULD WIND UP ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  ALL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
EXCEPT THE UKMET CALLS FOR THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...GFS...AND NOGAPS.  THE
UKMET CONTINUES TO CALL FOR AN EASTWARD MOTION.  ALTHOUGH THIS
APPEARS UNLIKELY IT COULD OCCUR IF KATE AND THE UPPER LOW DO NOT
INTERACT AS SHOWN IN THE OTHER MODELS.

KATE HAS INTENSIFIED DESPITE MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE
SHIPS...GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL FORECAST THE SHEAR TO
DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 48 HR AS THE CYCLONE ROTATES AROUND THE
EASTERN AND NORTHERN SIDES OF THE UPPER LOW.  SHOULD THIS VERIFY...
KATE WOULD LIKELY STRENGTHEN...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
NUDGED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR THE FIRST 72 HR.  THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT KATE COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
IF THE STORM STRUCTURE IS NOT DISRUPTED TOO MUCH BY INTERACTION
WITH THE UPPER LOW.  AFTER 72 HR...KATE WILL BE NEAR OR OVER 25-26C
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/1500Z 28.8N  37.6W    60 KT
 12HR VT     30/0000Z 30.0N  36.5W    60 KT
 24HR VT     30/1200Z 30.8N  36.1W    65 KT
 36HR VT     01/0000Z 31.3N  36.3W    65 KT
 48HR VT     01/1200Z 31.6N  36.8W    70 KT
 72HR VT     02/1200Z 32.0N  38.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     03/1200Z 33.0N  40.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     04/1200Z 35.0N  45.0W    60 KT
 
 
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