Tropical Storm KATE

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TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2003
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN AND
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UP SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER...THE
STRONGEST CONVECTIVE BAND IS CURRENTLY WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER AND THE OVERALL PATTERN ON IR IMAGERY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE
AS IT WAS OVERNIGHT.  THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50
KT.

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS A 0913Z SSMI PASS INDICATE
THAT THE CENTER OF KATE IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ADJUSTED TO 020/9.  A GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS KATE IS STEERED BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTH. AFTER
THAT...A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AWAY
FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THIS WILL PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY
NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT BY 72 HOURS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE NOW AGREES
IN BUILDING THIS STRONG ANTICYCLONE AND STEERING KATE ON A SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER 72 HOURS. THE UKMET IS THE SOLE OUTLIER
AND CONTINUES TO MOVE THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD
COOLER WATERS.

SHIPS GUIDANCE NO LONGER BRINGS KATE TO A HURRICANE...AND PEAKS THE
INTENSITY NEAR 60 KT BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS. THE GFDL...ON THE
OTHER HAND...STEADILY INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM TO 100 KT IN 48 HOURS
BUT THIS SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. IN FACT...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INCREASES THE SHEAR OVER
THE NEXT 48 HRS AND SO IT SEEMS THAT ONLY A MODEST STRENGTHENING IS
JUSTIFIED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STRENGTHENS KATE TO 60 KT IN 24
HOURS AND MAINTAINS THAT INTENSITY UNTIL 48 HOURS. SLIGHT WEAKENING
IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DECELERATE AND RE-CURVE TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH THE INTENSITY LEVELING OFF AT 50 KT THROUGH 120
HOURS. IF KATE CAN SURVIVE THIS ENVIRONMENT...IT IS CONCEIVABLE
THAT SHE COULD CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD COURSE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WELL BEYOND THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
 
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/1500Z 24.5N  43.3W    50 KT
 12HR VT     29/0000Z 25.4N  42.6W    55 KT
 24HR VT     29/1200Z 26.8N  41.2W    60 KT
 36HR VT     30/0000Z 28.0N  39.6W    60 KT
 48HR VT     30/1200Z 29.0N  38.2W    60 KT
 72HR VT     01/1200Z 30.0N  37.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     02/1200Z 31.0N  37.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     03/1200Z 32.0N  38.5W    50 KT
 
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