ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2003 THE CYCLONE HAS FINALLY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AS THE SMALL FLARE UP OF CONVECTION NOTED EARLIER EXPANDED AND FILLED THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. CONSENSUS IN THE DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND AFWA OF 3.0 AND CI-NUMBERS OF 2.5 PUSH THE INTENSITY INTO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. ALTOUGH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CALLED FOR NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS ALTERED THAT LOGIC. HOWEVER...IT IS REALLY DIFFICULT TO DEBATE 30 KT VERSUS 35 KT CYCLONE INTENSITY IN SITUATIONS WHERE IN SITU SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE UNAVAILABLE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/12 KT AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE 12Z NOGAPS AND GFS RUNS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING KATE WESTWARD BEYOND 96 HOURS...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND THE CYCLONE MOVES AROUND AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK NUDGES IN THIS DIRECTION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE CYCLONE IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AS THE CYCLONE CENTER WAS EXPOSED...HOWEVER THE SHEAR PRESENT THIS MORNING HAS APPEARED TO LESSEN A LITTLE BIT AND HAS ALLOWED THE CONVECTION TO FLARE UP. THE 18Z SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE WIND SHEAR FROM THE GFS INCREASES ABOVE 30 KTS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THE SHIPS STRENGTHENING TREND. FORECASTER AVILA/SISKO FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/2100Z 21.5N 44.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 28/0600Z 23.0N 44.9W 40 KT 24HR VT 28/1800Z 25.0N 45.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 29/0600Z 26.4N 44.6W 50 KT 48HR VT 29/1800Z 28.0N 43.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 30/1800Z 29.1N 42.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 01/1800Z 30.6N 40.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 02/1800Z 32.0N 40.0W 55 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC