ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2003 EARLY MORNING GOES-12 IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED CENTER AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WITH SOME CONVECTION FLARING NEAR THE CENTER. AN EARLY MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE CYCLONE SHOWED SURFACE WINDS OF 30 KNOTS KEEPING THE SYSTEM A DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/12 KT AND IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BEYOND 96 HRS THE GFS TRACK SOLUTION MOVES THE CYCLONE WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH DETACHES FROM THE PRIMARY TROUGH...CONSEQUENTLY THE SYSTEM RESPONDS TO THIS UPPER LOW WITH A MORE NORTHWEST AND FINALLY WESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK SLOWS BEYOND 96 HRS AND BY 120 HRS NUDGES MORE TOWARD THE GFS WESTWARD TRACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY WHICH CALLED FOR THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN DID NOT MATERIALIZE. CONSEQUENTLY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO REMAIN A DEPRESSION AS UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS OVER THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 72 HRS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS GUIDANCE THAT HAS SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 30 KT BY 60 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DEPRESSION UNLESS THE SHEAR PATTERN RELAXES BEYOND 96 HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION. FORECASTER AVILA/SISKO FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1500Z 20.4N 43.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 28/0000Z 22.0N 44.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 28/1200Z 23.9N 45.3W 30 KT 36HR VT 29/0000Z 25.3N 45.3W 30 KT 48HR VT 29/1200Z 26.8N 44.5W 30 KT 72HR VT 30/1200Z 28.8N 42.7W 30 KT 96HR VT 01/1200Z 30.1N 40.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 02/1200Z 31.8N 39.0W 40 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC