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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2003
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME ELONGATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND
THE PRIMARY CONVECTION IS CONFINED WITHIN A CURVED BAND TO THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. THE PRIMARY CENTER IS NOW PARTIALLY
EXPOSED WHICH BOOSTS THE CONFIDENCE LOCATION OF THE CENTER. TAFB
AND SAB SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSIS YIELDS T-NUMBERS OF 2.5
AND 2.0 RESPECTIVELY...CONSEQUENTLY THE CYCLONE IS ON THE VERGE OF
REACHING TROPICAL STORM STATUS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/12.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK CONTINUES
ALONG THE GUNS CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AND STAYS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
CONTINUITY.  THE 18Z SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE INCREASES TO 45 KTS
WITHIN 48 HOURS SINCE THE GFS DEEP MEAN LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE IN
THE RANGE OF 15-20 KTS AND REYNOLDS SST VALUES OF 28C ALONG THE
CYCLONE TRACK.  
 
FORECASTER AVILA/SISKO
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/2100Z 17.0N  41.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     27/0600Z 18.2N  42.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     27/1800Z 19.9N  44.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     28/0600Z 21.4N  46.1W    45 KT
 48HR VT     28/1800Z 22.9N  47.5W    50 KT
 72HR VT     29/1800Z 24.8N  48.4W    55 KT
 96HR VT     30/1800Z 26.6N  47.2W    55 KT
120HR VT     01/1800Z 27.9N  45.6W    55 KT
 
 
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