ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN CONTINUES TO BE RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...A 2017Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND A 2106Z SSMI WERE USEFUL IN INTERPRETING THE INITIAL POSITION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...30 KT FROM AFWA. SINCE THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR... PARTICULARLY OVER THE CENTER AND TO THE NORTH. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST APPEARS TO BE TEMPORARILY ENHANCING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BEGIN TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...IF THE POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CONSOLIDATES FURTHER SOUTH...THE SHEAR MAY HAVE LESS OF AN INHIBITING INFLUENCE. ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS NORTHWEST OR 305/13. T.D. SIXTEEN SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 3 OR 4 DAYS. AFTERWARDS...A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO THE WEAKNESS SHOULD BEGIN. ALL LARGE SCALE MODELS...AS WELL AS THE GFDL...SHOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST EXTEND OF A MID LEVEL HIGH SITUATED WEST OF THE AZORES BY DAY 3 WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. NOGAPS AND THE UKMET LOSE THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE WEAKNESS BEYOND THAT POINT MERGING WITH THE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. THE GFS TURNS SHARPLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLIES AT 72 HOURS AND BEGINS TO VIGOROUSLY INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM AROUND DAY 4. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND THE BAMS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 12.6N 39.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 13.8N 41.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 27/0000Z 15.1N 43.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 27/1200Z 16.3N 45.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 28/0000Z 17.5N 47.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 29/0000Z 19.5N 49.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 30/0000Z 21.0N 50.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 01/0000Z 22.5N 51.0W 55 KT NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC