ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JUAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2003 THE SYSTEM'S APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGES IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IT WAS EARLIER TODAY...WITH A CLOUD-FILLED EYE STILL APPARENT. LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGEST NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH. JUAN IS LIKELY TO BEGIN FEELING THE EFFECT OF SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WATERS VERY SOON. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE RAPID FORWARD MOTION...THERE WILL WILL BE LITTLE TIME FOR WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THUS THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE OF HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES NOVA SCOTIA. THE FAST FORWARD SPEED WILL SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AROUND 4 INCHES...100 MM. SINCE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THE TIME OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE...STORM SURGE FLOODING COULD BE SIGNIFICANT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. WIND AND RAIN WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING INTERNET ADDRESS: WWW.ATL.EC.GC.CA/WEATHER/HURRICANE/INDEX_E.HTML JUAN CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH WITH CURRENT MOTION AROUND 360/20. THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED. JUAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE SWEPT NORTHWARD BY THE FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...AND IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR LESS BECOME ABSORBED BY THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/2100Z 41.2N 64.1W 85 KT 12HR VT 29/0600Z 46.0N 64.1W 70 KT 24HR VT 29/1800Z 53.0N 62.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 30/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC