Hurricane JUAN

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HURRICANE JUAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2003
 
CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE EYE HAVE WARMED SOME...BUT THE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN 5.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  ALTHOUGH THERE WILL NOT
BE AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SHEAR AS JUAN ACCELERATES TOWARD NOVA
SCOTIA...THE SSTS COOL SIGNIFICANTLY AND SO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THE HURRICANE MAY HAVE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFICULTY BRINGING STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWNWARD OVER THE COLD WATER
AS WELL.  HOWEVER...JUAN SHOULD STILL BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT
THAT TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/8.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED ACCELERATION...THE
GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT.  THERE WAS A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN
THE GUIDANCE SUITE AT 00Z AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS NUDGED
LEFTWARD AS WELL...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS/GFS
CONSENSUS.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/0300Z 36.8N  63.8W    90 KT
 12HR VT     28/1200Z 39.0N  64.4W    80 KT
 24HR VT     29/0000Z 44.3N  64.4W    65 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     29/1200Z 50.7N  64.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     30/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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