ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JUAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2003 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH JUAN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IT LOOKS AT ITS BEST SO FAR. ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS RAGGED...IT IS SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION. IN FACT...LATEST SSMI PASS SHOWS A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTING THE THE EYEWALL IS CLOSED. IN ADDITION... THERE ARE WELL-DEFINED CURVED BANDS AND THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR. GIVING THE CURRRENT STRUCTURE AND PATTERN...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE JUAN REACHES COOLER WATERS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL THAT HAS BEEN CORRECTLY INTENSIFYING THE HURRICANE. JUAN IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEYOND 36 HOURS. JUAN HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD BECOME STRONGER AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. JUAN SHOULD THEN INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND TURN MORE TO THE NORTH. ON THIS TRACK...JUAN SHOULD BE BRINGING HURRICANE CONDITIONS OVER NOVA SCOTIA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS GUNA AND GUNS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1500Z 35.3N 63.0W 75 KT 12HR VT 28/0000Z 37.5N 63.7W 80 KT 24HR VT 28/1200Z 40.5N 64.5W 80 KT 36HR VT 29/0000Z 44.5N 64.0W 70 KT 48HR VT 29/1200Z 52.0N 61.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 30/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC