Tropical Storm JUAN

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TROPICAL STORM JUAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2003
 
HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP
CONVECTION AND THE OUTFLOW IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING. BEST ESTIMATE OF
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KNOTS...BASED ON THE LATEST PASS OF THE
ADIOS SCATTEROMETER. IN ADDITION A DRIFTING BUOY NEAR THE CENTER
REPORTED 996.6 MB AT 1800 UTC. THE OCEAN IS STILL WARM AND THE
SHEAR HAS RELAXED A BIT. THEREFORE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A MODEST
STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOL WATERS AND BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL IN 4 DAYS.
 
THE CENTER WAS MEANDERING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...A
DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE WILL FORCE
THE SYSTEM TO MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD TRACK
FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS WHICH UNANIMOUSLY BRING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON A
NORTHWARD TRACK FOR NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS VARY IN
FORWARD SPEED.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/2100Z 30.9N  61.8W    45 KT
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 32.0N  62.0W    50 KT
 24HR VT     26/1800Z 33.5N  62.5W    55 KT
 36HR VT     27/0600Z 35.0N  63.0W    60 KT
 48HR VT     27/1800Z 37.0N  63.5W    60 KT
 72HR VT     28/1800Z 42.0N  63.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     29/1800Z 48.0N  60.8W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     30/1800Z...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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