ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2003 DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE AREA NORTHEAST OF THE ILL-DEFINED CENTER...HOWEVER THIS CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT INCREASED. THUS THE MAXIMUM WIND ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 30 KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SITUATED ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH....WHICH HAS BEEN CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY LESS HOSTILE PATTERN...WITH MORE UPPER-AIR RIDGING OVER THE SYSTEM...IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES JUST A LITTLE STRENGTHENING...AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGES. CENTER FIXES ARE AS MUCH AS 125 N MI APART...SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 330/11 IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THIS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. THE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE U.K. MET OFFICE AND GFS TRACKS. THE NOGAPS MODEL WEAKENS THE CYCLONE...AND TAKES IT FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE AREAS OF CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 14.1N 25.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 15.9N 26.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 10/1800Z 18.0N 27.2W 35 KT 36HR VT 11/0600Z 20.0N 28.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 11/1800Z 22.0N 30.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 12/1800Z 25.0N 32.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 13/1800Z 28.0N 34.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 14/1800Z 30.0N 35.5W 35 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC