Tropical Depression FOURTEEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2003

THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A LARGE CIRCULATION AND A SMALL CURVED
CONVECTIVE BAND. BECAUSE IT LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER...THE
INITIAL POSITION COULD BE ANYWHERE WITHIN 60 N MI. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 30 KNOTS BASED ON A SHIP REPORT
LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. THE OCEAN IS WARM
AND THE SHEAR IS LOW...SO THE DEPRESSION STILL HAS THE CHANCE TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.

THE CENTER OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS.  THERE IS A WEAKNESS OF
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE...
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/1500Z 13.4N  24.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     10/0000Z 14.5N  25.4W    30 KT
 24HR VT     10/1200Z 16.0N  26.2W    35 KT
 36HR VT     11/0000Z 18.2N  27.5W    35 KT
 48HR VT     11/1200Z 20.0N  29.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     12/1200Z 23.5N  32.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     13/1200Z 27.0N  34.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     14/1200Z 30.0N  36.0W    35 KT
 
 
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