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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2003
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS DECREASED
AND THE BANDING FEATURES HAVE DISAPPEARED. HOWEVER...EARLIER
SEAWINDS AND QUIKSCAT OVERPASSES INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT A GOOD
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ALSO EXISTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT 30 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT
FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB....AND CONTINUITY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/05. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. TD-14 IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN GRADUALLY
TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTWARD AS A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY DIGS SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. HOWEVER
...GIVEN THAT THE DEPRESSION REMAINS FAIRLY FAR TO THE SOUTH...THIS
SCENARIO MAY BE SLOW IN DEVELOPING AND MAY NOT EVEN OCCUR AT ALL.
THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS SUGGEST THAT BY 96-120 HOURS THE
CYCLONE COULD BEGIN TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF AND A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFS SOLUTION.
 
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR UNTIL THE CYCLONE MAINTAINS SOME
INNER-CORE CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT...BUT THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR MAY
INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT AND ORGANIZATION UNTIL THE CYCLONE PULLS
FARTHER WEST AWAY FROM THE DRY SOURCE REGION OF WESTERN AFRICA. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL...WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM UP TO 67 KT IN 48 HOURS. 
 
FORECASTER STEWART
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/2100Z 12.0N  22.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     09/0600Z 12.5N  24.1W    35 KT
 24HR VT     09/1800Z 13.3N  25.6W    40 KT
 36HR VT     10/0600Z 14.6N  26.9W    45 KT
 48HR VT     10/1800Z 16.0N  28.4W    55 KT
 72HR VT     11/1800Z 19.5N  31.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     12/1800Z 23.0N  34.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     13/1800Z 27.0N  36.0W    70 KT
 
 
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