Hurricane ISABEL

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TROPICAL STORM ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  52
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2003
 
RADAR...SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT ISABEL IS
RAPIDLY LOSING ITS INNER CORE AND THE CONVECTION IS WEAKENING.
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 55 KNOTS. A CONTINUED
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AND ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN ABOUT 2 DAYS OR LESS.  WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO
DIMINISHED ALONG THE COAST BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL SUPPORTS
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER.
 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ABOUT 20
KNOTS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED...AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0300Z 37.7N  78.0W    55 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     19/1200Z 40.5N  79.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     20/0000Z 46.5N  79.5W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     20/1200Z 53.0N  79.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     21/0000Z 58.5N  75.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     22/0000Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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