ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 49 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2003 WSR-88D RADAR DATA FROM MOREHEAD CITY SHOWS WHAT LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC CONCENTRIC EYEWALL FORMATION...WITH A POORLY-DEFINED RING OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A STRONGER RING 40-50 NM OUT. EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATES THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER RING...AND THAT THERE IS NO WIND MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH THE INNER RING. THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX SHOWED A PRESSURE OF 957 MB...AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS DURING THE MISSION WERE 109 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 90 KT. ISABEL IS MOVING 325-330 DEGREES AT ABOUT 12 KT. A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 24 HR BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. AFTER THAT...ISABEL SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES. ALL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLIGHT STRENGTHENING. AFTER LANDFALL...ISABEL SHOULD WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. A NEW AIRCRAFT SHOULD BE ARRIVING AT THE CENTER SHORTLY. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 33.1N 74.7W 90 KT 12HR VT 18/1800Z 35.0N 76.4W 90 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 19/0600Z 37.9N 78.2W 60 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 19/1800Z 41.4N 78.5W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 20/0600Z 47.0N 78.0W 35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 21/0600Z 59.5N 72.5W 30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 22/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC