ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003 AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST MEASURED 700 MB PEAK WINDS OF 148 AND 143 KNOTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...RESPECTIVELY. THIS CORRESPONDS TO 135 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE BUT ASSUMING THAT THE ENTIRE WIND FIELD HAS NOT BEEN SAMPLED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 140 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB. SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO BE SPECTACULAR WITH A DISTINCT EYE AND OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN ISABEL WITH AN AVERAGE INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REALISTIC SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS OFF THE U.S EAST COAST AND WEAKENS THE STEERING CURRENTS. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE IS GONE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD AND ISABEL SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...DANGEROUS ISABEL WILL BE NEARING THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH UNANIMOUSLY BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE TO THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE GUNS CONSENSUS WHICH HAS HAD A VERY LOW ERROR SO FAR. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 23.3N 65.2W 140 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 23.8N 66.8W 140 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 24.5N 68.5W 135 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 25.5N 69.5W 130 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 26.5N 70.5W 125 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 29.0N 72.5W 120 KT 96HR VT 18/0600Z 33.1N 75.0W 110 KT 120HR VT 19/0600Z 39.5N 77.0W 100 KT...INLAND NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC