ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2003 06Z DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE T NUMBER 6.0 OR 115 KNOT FROM ALL AGENCIES AND OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS WERE THE SAME. THE WELL-DEFINED EYE AND CLOUD STRUCTURE REMAIN IMPRESSIVE. THE OFFICIAL INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES ARE IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...TO 125 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS. HOWEVER HURRICANES RARELY MAINTAIN SUCH A HIGH WIND SPEED FOR FIVE DAYS AND THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS WEAKENING AFTER 60 HOURS BECAUSE OF THIS FACTOR. FABIANS COOL WAKE COULD ALSO BE A NEGATIVE FACTOR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/12. THE GFS SHOWS A STRONG SOUTHWARD BUILDING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AHEAD OF ISABEL AND THE TRACK MODELS RESPOND BY SHOWING A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST DURING DAY 1 THROUGH 3 FOLLOWED BY A SMALLER WESTWARD TURN ON DAY 4 OR 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A MODEL CONCENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST. THE CENTER OF ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO WITH ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERNMOST ISLANDS OF THE CARIBBEAN ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE AVERAGE ERRORS OF 4 AND 5 DAY TRACK FORECASTS ARE MORE THAN 200 MILES. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0900Z 19.1N 45.7W 115 KT 12HR VT 09/1800Z 19.8N 47.5W 120 KT 24HR VT 10/0600Z 20.3N 49.4W 125 KT 36HR VT 10/1800Z 20.3N 51.3W 120 KT 48HR VT 11/0600Z 20.0N 53.3W 115 KT 72HR VT 12/0600Z 19.5N 56.5W 110 KT 96HR VT 13/0600Z 20.0N 59.5W 110 KT 120HR VT 14/0600Z 21.0N 63.0W 110 KT NNNN
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