ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2003 ISABEL CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS IMPRESSIVE COLD CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE WHICH HAS DECREASED IN DIAMETER SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW 90 KT AND IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KTS FROM TAFB AND 90 KTS FROM SAB AND AIR FORCE GLOBAL. IN FACT...ISABEL MAY BE STRONGER BUT I WANT TO SEE IF IT CAN MAINTAIN THESE SATELLITES ESTIMATES FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER CYCLE BEFORE I GO ABOVE 90 KTS THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/14. ISABEL IS MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. BUT... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN UPPER COLD LOW THAT IS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF ISABEL. THE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS COLD LOW MAY BE ADDING A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE MOTION. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS EVENTUALLY MOVE THIS SYSTEM TOWARD THE WEST AND WEAKEN IT. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND ISABEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH THE SYSTEM ENDING UP JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON DAY FIVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS AND IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE SHIPS MODEL INTENSIFIES ISABEL TO 115 KTS IN 48 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM MAY BE IN A RAPID DEEPENING MODE AND MAY GET STRONGER SOONER. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0900Z 16.9N 41.4W 90 KT 12HR VT 08/1800Z 17.9N 43.3W 100 KT 24HR VT 09/0600Z 18.8N 45.7W 105 KT 36HR VT 09/1800Z 19.4N 48.0W 110 KT 48HR VT 10/0600Z 19.8N 50.3W 115 KT 72HR VT 11/0600Z 19.9N 54.4W 115 KT 96HR VT 12/0600Z 20.2N 58.0W 115 KT 120HR VT 13/0600Z 20.6N 60.7W 115 KT NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC