ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2003 THE ALLEGED EYE OF ISABEL PASSED OVER BUOY 13008 LOCATED AT 15N 38W BETWEEN 14-15Z. THE BUOY REPORTED 37 KT AND 24 KT NORTHEAST WINDS ...TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE SATELLITE CENTER POSITIONS. THESE WIND REPORTS SUGGEST THAT THE ACTUAL CENTER IS FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE EYE FEATURE...AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...THE EYE FEATURE...OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN...AND OUTFLOW PATTERN HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 77 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/13. THE INITIAL POSITION REMAINS ABOUT 24 NMI SOUTH OF THE SATELLITE POSITIONS. THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN EVEN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW ON KEEPING AT LEAST A MODERATE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF ISABEL ALONG 32N LATITUDE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND EVEN BUILD IT WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. THIS SHOULD KEEP ISABEL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48-72 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL WESTWARD MOTION DEVELOPING AFTER THAT. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WAS ONLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND SLOWED A LITTLE AFTER 72 HOURS... WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. ISABEL CURRENTLY HAS A VERY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN AND... UNFORTUNATELY...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING IT TO BECOME EVEN BETTER. BY 36-48 HOURS... ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS EXCEPT THE UKMET ARE FORECASTING MORE THAN 50 KT OF OUTFLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF ISABEL BEING DRAWN INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A PATTERN LIKE THAT CAN OFTENTIMES LEAD TO RAPID OR EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS ISABEL UP TO 97 KT IN 60 HOURS...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER SINCE SHIPS WAS LOW/SLOW WITH THE INTENSIFICATION OF FABIAN. THE INTENSITY WAS LEVELED OFF AFTER 48 HOURS SINCE ISABEL MAY CROSS A POSSIBLE COLD WAKE LEFT BEHIND BY HURRICANE FABIAN. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/2100Z 15.2N 39.1W 70 KT 12HR VT 08/0600Z 15.8N 40.5W 75 KT 24HR VT 08/1800Z 16.5N 42.8W 85 KT 36HR VT 09/0600Z 17.2N 45.2W 95 KT 48HR VT 09/1800Z 18.0N 47.7W 100 KT 72HR VT 10/1800Z 19.0N 52.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 11/1800Z 19.5N 55.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 12/1800Z 19.5N 60.0W 100 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC