ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2003 SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT ISABEL HAS DEVELOPED A VERY LARGE RAGGED EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 77 KT FROM AFWA...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS NEARLY CIRCULAR AND APPEARS TO BE UNRESTRICTED AND EXPANDING. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/09...BASED ON ABOUT A 9 HOUR MOTION BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE MICROWAVE POSITIONS. THE EYE FEATURE IS RAGGED AND NOT REALLY A TRUE EMBEDDED EYE. CONVENTIONAL WATER VAPOR AND SSMI VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE DRY AIR HAS BEEN WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST...WHICH HAS ACTUALLY ERODED THE CONVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE. FOR THIS REASON ...THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE 'EYE' AND CLOSER TO THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. EVEN WITH THAT...THE INITIAL POSITION IS STILL MORE THAN 40 NMI NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THERE IS GOOD CONVERGENCE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 48-72 HOURS...WITH A MORE WESTWARD MOTION AFTER THAT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WHICH INDICATES THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 32N LATITUDE SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AND PERHAPS EVEN CLOSE OFF A 500 MB HEIGHT CENTER A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE NORTHERLY INITIAL POSITION. AT LEAST STEADY STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR SINCE ISABEL NOW HAS AN EYE FEATURE...IS OVER 82F WATER WITH WARMER SSTS AHEAD...AND HAS AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY MODELS BRING ISABEL UP TO 96 KT IN 42-60 HOURS...SO THIS TREND WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED. THE INTENSITY WAS LEVELED OFF AFTER 48 HOURS SINCE ISABEL IS FORECAST TO BEGIN CROSSING A POSSIBLE COLD WAKE LEFT BEHIND BY HURRICANE FABIAN LAST WEEK. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 14.5N 37.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 08/0000Z 15.1N 39.2W 75 KT 24HR VT 08/1200Z 15.8N 41.3W 85 KT 36HR VT 09/0000Z 16.6N 43.8W 95 KT 48HR VT 09/1200Z 17.3N 46.3W 100 KT 72HR VT 10/1200Z 18.5N 51.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 11/1200Z 19.0N 55.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 12/1200Z 19.5N 60.0W 100 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC