ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2003 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH ISABEL IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. IT APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND HAS A WELL DEFINED CURVED BAND. THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS BUT THE NORTHEAST. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AS INDICATED BY GLOBAL AND SHIPS MODELS. IN ADDITION...SSTS ARE INCREASING ALONG THE PATH OF ISABEL. THEREFORE...STRENGHTENING IS INDICATED AND ISABEL MAY BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS. MORE RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270 AT 12 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS WELL ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF ISABEL...A WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS POSSIBLE IN ABOUT 4 TO 5 DAYS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPROACHES A WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 13.6N 34.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 07/0000Z 13.7N 36.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 07/1200Z 14.0N 39.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 08/0000Z 14.5N 41.5W 55 KT 48HR VT 08/1200Z 15.0N 44.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 09/1200Z 16.0N 48.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 10/1200Z 17.0N 51.9W 65 KT 120HR VT 11/1200Z 18.0N 56.5W 65 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC