ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ISABEL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 9 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2003 SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ISABEL. SINCE THE SHEAR IS LOW AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. ISABEL IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS. A REGULAR ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 1500Z TODAY. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1300Z 14.0N 34.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 06/1800Z 14.0N 35.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 07/0600Z 14.0N 37.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 07/1800Z 14.5N 40.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 08/0600Z 15.0N 42.5W 65 KT 72HR VT 09/0600Z 15.5N 46.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 10/0600Z 16.5N 50.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 11/0600Z 17.5N 54.5W 65 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC