ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2003 THE GUILLOTINE HAS FALLEN ON HENRI. CONTINUOUS VERTICAL SHEAR OF 25-35 KT DURING THE LAST DAY OR TWO HAS WEAKENED ANY WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION... THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY INVOLVED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW COLD-AIR CUMULUS POURING INTO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF HENRI...NOT AN ATTRIBUTE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. LARGE-SCALE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A CLOUD PATTERN MORE LIKE AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITH A COMMA-LIKE APPEARANCE ON VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE NORTHEAST OF HENRI. THUS... HENRI HAS LOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON WHETHER THIS WEAK SYSTEM IS SUBTROPICAL... BUT THE APPEARANCE OF FRONTAL FEATURES AND A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OVER 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER LEAD US TO CONCLUDE THAT IT IS INDEED EXTRATROPICAL. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 050/6 WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE ELONGATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE A SHORTWAVE INDUCES WHAT APPEARS TO BE A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF MASSACHUSETTS. THE NHC TRACK IS JUST A BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL. FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/2100Z 33.0N 75.0W 25 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 12HR VT 09/0600Z 33.5N 74.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 09/1800Z 34.0N 73.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 10/0600Z 34.5N 72.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 10/1800Z 35.0N 71.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 11/1800Z 35.5N 70.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC