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Tropical Storm HENRI (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY...INFRARED AND MICROWAVE...SHOWS THAT HENRI IS
LOSING THE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND MAY BE TRANSFORMING INTO
AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.  THE LESS SAID...THE BETTER...ABOUT
DIAGNOSING THE PHASE OR ENERGETICS OF A CYCLONE.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS
30 KNOTS INCREASING SOON TO 40 KNOTS.  THE MAXIMUM 1-MIN WIND SPEED
IS ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS.
 
THE 00Z GFS RUN SHOWS HENRI TO BE A SHALLOW LOW TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH
OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  THE FORECAST SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IS BASED ON THE GFS FORECAST OF INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 055/07.  IT IS ASSUMED
THAT THE CENTER WAS JUST WEST OF DATA BUOY 41002 AT 06Z SINCE THE
WIND SHIFTED FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 06Z.  THE CIRCULATION MAY BE
STRETCHED OR ELONGATED...AS SUGGESTED BY A 23Z QUIKSCAT PASS.  THE
FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AFTER
24 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0900Z 32.5N  75.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     08/1800Z 33.3N  74.9W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     09/0600Z 33.8N  74.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     09/1800Z 34.3N  73.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     10/0600Z 34.8N  72.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     11/0600Z 35.0N  71.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     12/0600Z 35.0N  70.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     13/0600Z 35.0N  70.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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