| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

---

Tropical Storm HENRI (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE HENRI IS
INTERACTING WITH AN OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH COLD AIR ENTERING THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDES OF
THE CIRCULATION.  THE CYCLONE IS STILL PRODUCING BURSTS OF
CONVECTION EAST AND NORTH OF THE BROAD CENTER...SO IT WILL REMAIN A
30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...WITH THE CURRENT
TRENDS...AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT...AND MORE COLD AIR
FORECAST TO ENTER THE SYSTEM AFTER 36 HR...THE CYCLONE IS NOW
FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE IN 12-24 HR RATHER THAN
CONTINUE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS MARKS A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN
PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/7.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  HENRI IS EMBEDDED
IN MID/UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THE MOTION MAY SLOW EVEN
MORE AFTER 36-48 HR AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILD IN TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0300Z 31.9N  76.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     08/1200Z 32.5N  75.8W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     09/0000Z 33.6N  74.2W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     09/1200Z 34.3N  72.7W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     10/0000Z 34.7N  71.1W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     11/0000Z 35.0N  69.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     12/0000Z 35.0N  68.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     13/0000Z 35.0N  67.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
NNNN