ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2003 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY INVESTIGATED HENRI...AND REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1007 MB AND MAXIMUM 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 37 KT EAST OF THE CENTER. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED 100 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE ADVISORY INITIAL MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 30 KT BASED ON THIS DATA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED BASED ON AIRCRAFT WINDS. HENRI CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED WITH AN UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION OF 040/7 BASED ON THE PAST 12 HOURS OF MOTION. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW HENRI AS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT AND THESE MODELS SHOW HENRI GETTING TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF SHALLOW HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH SLOWER FORWARD SPEEDS. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHT STRENGTHENING FROM THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE SHIPS MODEL ALSO SHOWS MODEST STRENGTHENING...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NEARLY 25-KNOT VERTICAL SHEAR OVER HENRI AND INCREASING SHEAR IS FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO 40 KNOTS AT 24 HOURS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 30.8N 79.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 07/1800Z 31.8N 78.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 08/0600Z 32.8N 77.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 08/1800Z 33.7N 75.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 09/0600Z 34.5N 74.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 10/0600Z 35.5N 72.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 11/0600Z 35.5N 70.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 12/0600Z 35.5N 69.5W 25 KT NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC