ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2003 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED HENRI RECENTLY...AND FOUND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1006 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 33 KT. THE MAXIMUM WIND WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. HENRI IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYNOPTIC GRADIENT WEAKENS TO THE EAST...AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO SLOW DOWN WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 050/13. ADDITIONAL SLOWING SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL SLOWING OF THE MOTION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF HENRI. HENRI WILL HAVE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME NOW THAT THE CENTER HAS EMERGED INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING HENRI UP TO 50 KT IN 48 HOURS. THIS SEEMS EXCESSIVE GIVEN THE MODEL-DIAGNOSED SHEAR OF 25 KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. AFTER 36 HOURS...AS THE HIGH BUILDS NORTH OF HENRI AND THE LOW LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW REVERSES...THE SHEAR IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...THE CIRCULATION SHOULD GRADUALLY ELONGATE AND BECOME LOST WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0300Z 30.3N 79.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 07/1200Z 31.3N 77.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 08/0000Z 32.5N 75.9W 40 KT 36HR VT 08/1200Z 33.6N 73.9W 40 KT 48HR VT 09/0000Z 34.3N 71.9W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 10/0000Z 35.2N 68.7W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC