Tropical Storm HENRI

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TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2003
 
AN EARLIER CONVECTIVE BURST IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT HELPED LOWER
THE PRESSURE TO 997 MB...BUT RECENT IMAGES SHOW THAT THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS REASSERTING ITSELF.  THE MOST RECENT
PRESSURE REPORT FROM THE AIRCRAFT WAS BACK UP TO 999 MB.  THERE MAY
BE ADDITIONAL PULSES OF APPARENT DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO
LANDFALL...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.

THE CENTER FIX LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN ERRATIC TODAY...BUT OVERALL YIELD
AN INITIAL MOTION OF 060/4.  THE FORECAST THINKING IS LARGELY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  HENRI IS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK
STEERING CURRENT SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN CALLING FOR A NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC WITHIN
ABOUT 100 MILES OR SO OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS.
AFTER THAT...THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE TRACK
SHOULD BEND TO THE RIGHT.  THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS THE FORWARD
SPEED...SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG...WITH STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL SOUTH-WESTERLIES AND LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES THAT
HENRI WILL BE SHEARED TO PIECES AND THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANT WILL BE
TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH AND DISSIPATE.  

SHOULD HENRI REGAIN STORM STRENGTH IN THE ATLANTIC...THESE WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE QUADRANTS.  LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...A STRONG SYNOPTIC GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE
HIGH AND THE DECAYING CYCLONE COULD BRING STRONG WINDS TO MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. 
 
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH HENRI CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING POTENTIAL.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/2100Z 28.4N  83.9W    45 KT
 12HR VT     06/0600Z 29.0N  83.0W    45 KT
 24HR VT     06/1800Z 30.1N  81.8W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     07/0600Z 31.2N  80.3W    35 KT...OVER WATER
 48HR VT     07/1800Z 32.0N  79.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     08/1800Z 33.5N  76.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     09/1800Z 34.0N  74.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     10/1800Z 34.0N  73.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 
 
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