ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2003 ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING IMPRESSIVELY TODAY...WITH THE LATEST REPORT FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT OF 1002 MB...THE WINDS HAVE NOT YET REACHED THE POINT THAT JUSTIFIES AN UPGRADE TO STORM STATUS. THE PEAK WIND FROM THE AIRCRAFT IN THE CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER WAS 38 KT...OR ABOUT 30 KT WHEN ADJUSTED TO THE SURFACE...BUT THIS AREA WAS NOT SAMPLED AFTER THE MOST RECENT PRESSURE FALL. I EXPECT THAT THE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY INCREASING AND TROPICAL STORM STATUS WILL BE CONFIRMED BY THE NEXT AIRCRAFT WHICH WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM NEAR 00Z. THE CENTER JUMPED EASTWARD INTO THE CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY... MAKING THE INITIAL MOTION HARD TO ESTIMATE. MY BEST ESTIMATE IS 090/6. GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A WEAK WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD....AND CONSEQUENTLY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AFTER THAT...RIDGING BEHIND HURRICANE FABIAN...AND A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW IN THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES COULD HELP KEEP THE DEPRESSION RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE U.S. COAST. MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS HAVING A MORE ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW TAKING THE CYCLONE OUT TO SEA RELATIVELY QUICKLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TO THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS WITH A TRACK CLOSE TO THE COAST. IF THE CYCLONE TAKES A PATH SIGNIFICANTLY LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...IT COULD BECOME ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL TROUGH BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...ALTHOUGH THIS APPEARS TO BE RELAXING SOMEWHAT. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO MAKE RAPID STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL DIFFICULT. AFTER THE CYCLONE ENTERS THE ATLANTIC...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND LIMIT REINTENSIFICATION. THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THESE RAINS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM OR NOT...IT POSES A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL/FLOODING THREAT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 27.8N 86.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 27.9N 85.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 28.3N 83.8W 40 KT 36HR VT 06/0600Z 28.8N 82.6W 45 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 06/1800Z 29.5N 81.5W 35 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 07/1800Z 31.5N 79.0W 35 KT...OVER WATER 96HR VT 08/1800Z 33.5N 76.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 09/1800Z 35.5N 72.5W 35 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC