ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2003 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE DEPRESSION CENTER NORTHEASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA COAST...HOWEVER... DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...AND IN THIS POSITION IS EXPERIENCING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR THAT SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT RAPID STRENGTHENING. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/2. SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO GIVEN THE POOR RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A WEAK WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN CALLING FOR A SLOW EAST- NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AFTER THAT...RIDGING BEHIND HURRICANE FABIAN COULD HELP KEEP THE DEPRESSION RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE U.S. COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD...AND REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND UKMET SOLUTION. THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THESE RAINS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM OR NOT...IT POSES A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL/FLOODING THREAT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 27.9N 87.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 28.1N 86.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 05/1200Z 28.5N 85.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 06/0000Z 28.9N 83.6W 40 KT 48HR VT 06/1200Z 29.5N 82.5W 35 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 07/1200Z 31.0N 80.0W 35 KT...OVER WATER 96HR VT 08/1200Z 33.0N 77.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 09/1200Z 35.0N 73.0W 35 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC