ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2003 THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS TAKING ON A BIT OF A COMMA SHAPE. BASED ON RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA AND THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SHEARING OVER THE AREA DUE TO THE FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...THIS SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SLOW STRENGTHENING. THE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE A NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT. `THERE IS A 500 MB TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...BUT SOME WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD REMNAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. THEREFORE A SLOW...GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...MOTION IS FORECAST. THIS IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT FASTER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW THE SYSTEM BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY DAY 5 SINCE THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH BAROCLINICITY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND THE CYCLONE MAY BE IN THE VICINITY IN THE GULF STREAM AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0900Z 27.8N 87.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/1800Z 28.2N 86.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 05/0600Z 28.5N 85.3W 35 KT 36HR VT 05/1800Z 28.8N 84.1W 40 KT 48HR VT 06/0600Z 29.2N 82.5W 40 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 07/0600Z 30.5N 79.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 08/0600Z 32.0N 76.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 09/0600Z 34.0N 73.0W 35 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC