ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2003 THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED A 25-KNOT SURFACE CIRCULATION AS INDICATED BY SURFACE AND RECON DATA. THE CENTER OF THE NEWLY FORMED DEPRESSION IS POORLY DEFINED AND CONSISTS OF A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH SQUALLY WEATHER WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT IDEAL...BUT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR THE DEPRESSION TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING LITTLE BUT IT WILL SOON BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A MID LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. IN ABOUT 4 TO 5 DAYS...ONCE IN THE ATLANTIC...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 27.5N 87.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 28.5N 87.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 29.2N 84.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 29.5N 82.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 05/1800Z 30.0N 80.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 06/1800Z 31.5N 77.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 07/1800Z 34.0N 73.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 08/1800Z 36.0N 69.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC