ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2003 THE HIGHEST WINDS RECENTLY OBSERVED WERE ABOUT 30 KNOTS AT SABINE PASS CMAN STATION AND GRACE IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND ALL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER THE WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE POSITION OF THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OR ELONGATED TROUGH IS AT THE TEXAS COAST. AT 13Z THE LOWEST PRESSURE OF 1008.6 MB WAS NEAR GALVESTON...BUT AT 12Z BUOY 42019 HAS 1008.7 MB. THE CENTER POSTION IS KEPT FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE BUOY BUT IT COULD JUST AS WELL BE 100 MILES FURTHER NORTH NEAR GALVESTON. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/13. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES HAS A WEAKNESS OVER TEXAS AND A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS INLAND. THE IS THE SCENARIO SHOWN BY THE GFDL...GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS. THE UKMET FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE EXAGGERATED TURN FROM NORTHWARD TO SOUTHWARD BUT HAS THE SAME GENERAL IDEA AS THE OTHER MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON THE RELOCATION OF THE CENTER. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS INLAND FLOODING FROM RAINFALL WITH THE FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED TO SLOW TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. WITH UP TO 6 INCHES ALREADY REPORTED IN HARRIS AND GALVESTON COUNTIES... AN ADDITIONAL 6 TO 9INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/1500Z 28.4N 96.4W 30 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 01/0000Z 29.2N 97.1W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 01/1200Z 30.0N 98.5W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 02/0000Z 30.5N 99.6W 20 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 02/1200Z 31.0N 101.0W 20 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC