ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2003 AIR FORCE RECON FOUND MULTIPLE...POORLY-DEFINED CENTERS WITHIN A LARGER ELONGATED CIRCULATION. THE POSITION GIVEN FOR THIS ADVISORY IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION FOR SUCH A POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM ANYWAY...SINCE THE MAIN BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS ARE SITUATED WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE VICINITY OF BROWNSVILLE IS APPARENTLY INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. INDEED...GRACE MAY NO LONGER BE OF TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...WE ARE RELUCTANT TO DOWNGRADE THE SYSTEM SO CLOSE TO LANDFALL...AND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW CONVECTIVE FLAREUP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 315/12 WITH GREAT UNCERTAINTY. SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF GRACE SHOULD PUSH THE SYSTEM INLAND WITHIN 12 HOURS OR LESS. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BASED ON A FASTER INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM GRACE SHOULD BE FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND OR WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN STATEMENTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/0900Z 27.0N 96.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 31/1800Z 27.8N 97.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 01/0600Z 29.0N 98.5W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 01/1800Z 29.5N 99.5W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 02/0600Z 30.0N 100.5W 20 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC