ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2003 SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS CURRENTLY INTERACTING WITH THE DEPRESSION PRODUCING SOME SHEAR. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A HYBRID SYSTEM WITH MOST OF THE WEATHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OR DRIFT SOUTHWARD RESULTING IN LIGHTER SHEAR. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 310 DEGREES OR NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1500Z 25.2N 92.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 31/0000Z 26.6N 94.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 31/1200Z 28.5N 96.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 01/0000Z 30.5N 98.0W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 01/1200Z 32.0N 100.0W 20 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC