ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 47 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2003 FABIAN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND HAS BEGUN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE AND A 0008Z SSMI PASS DEPICT AN ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE WITH A VERY SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB. AFWA AND SAB ESTIMATED THE INTENSITY AS AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 65 KT. FABIAN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BENEATH THE STRONG WESTERLIES AND OVER COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BE COMPLETE WITHIN 24 HOURS. AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...IT MAY REMAIN AS A LARGE AND INTENSE SYSTEM FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 4 DAYS AS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THE LARGE SCALE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT FABIAN WILL INTERACT OR MERGE WITH A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM IN 36 HOURS CREATING A CYCLONIC LOOPING MOTION NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF GREENLAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND AGREES WITH THE NOGAPS AND GFS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0900Z 47.7N 42.9W 65 KT 12HR VT 08/1800Z 51.8N 37.2W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 09/0600Z 56.9N 32.1W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 09/1800Z 59.9N 31.4W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 10/0600Z 61.5N 33.3W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 11/0600Z 59.0N 39.5W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 12/0600Z 56.5N 35.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 13/0600Z 55.5N 30.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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