ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2003 A SLOW WEAKENING IS CONTINUING WITH FABIAN...WITH LESS INTENSE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST ELONGATED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGES. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE SLOWLY DROPPING...SO THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 80 KT. FABIAN IS CROSSING THE 25C ISOTHERM AND SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM IN 12 HOURS...FAVORING FURTHER WEAKENING. TYPICALLY THE WEAKENING WOULD BE MORE DRAMATIC OVER THE SUB 15C WATERS BUT A TRANSITION INTO A POTENT EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST WITH NEAR HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GFS MODEL AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. THE MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... 050/22 KT... BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS FABIAN IS PICKED UP BY A SHORTWAVE SEEN TO ITS WEST IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGES. THE SHORTWAVE AND THE CYCLONE ARE LIKELY TO MERGE WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW AHEAD OF A HUGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST BY THE GFS NEAR GREENLAND. THE REMNANTS OF FABIAN ARE LIKELY TO BE A STRONG STORM/GALE CENTER OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 41.4N 52.2W 80 KT 12HR VT 08/0000Z 44.0N 48.0W 70 KT 24HR VT 08/1200Z 48.5N 41.5W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 09/0000Z 53.0N 34.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 09/1200Z 58.0N 30.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 10/1200Z 61.0N 39.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/1200Z 58.0N 39.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/1200Z 57.0N 35.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC