ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2003 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FABIAN IS A WELL ORGANIZED HURRICANE WITH A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION AND GOOD OUTFLOW. CONSERVATIVELY...THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 95 KNOTS...BUT WINDS COULD BE HIGHER. FABIAN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER COOL WATERS AND IT SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 209 KNOTS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...AS FABIAN BECOMES A FULL FLEDGED EXTRATROPICAL STORM...IT MAY SLOW DOWN AND BEGIN TO MEANDER AS AN OCCLUDED CYCLONE. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY FORECAST WHICH WAS BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM NCEP/HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. BUOY 44630 LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EYEWALL HAS REPORTED A PRESSURE DROP FROM 987.0 MB AT 18Z TO 968.7 MB AT 19Z. BASE ON THIS DATA THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF FABIAN HAS BEEN ESTIMATED AT 960 MB. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/2100Z 37.5N 59.3W 95 KT 12HR VT 07/0600Z 40.0N 56.0W 95 KT 24HR VT 07/1800Z 44.0N 50.5W 80 KT 36HR VT 08/0600Z 47.5N 45.5W 70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 08/1800Z 51.5N 40.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 09/1800Z 59.0N 30.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 10/1800Z 60.0N 35.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 11/1800Z 58.5N 32.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC