Hurricane FABIAN

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HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FABIAN IS A WELL ORGANIZED HURRICANE
WITH A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION AND GOOD OUTFLOW.
CONSERVATIVELY...THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 95 KNOTS...BUT WINDS
COULD BE HIGHER. FABIAN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER COOL WATERS AND
IT SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 36 TO 48 HOURS.
 
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 209
KNOTS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED IN THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...AS FABIAN BECOMES A FULL FLEDGED
EXTRATROPICAL STORM...IT MAY SLOW DOWN AND BEGIN TO MEANDER AS AN
OCCLUDED CYCLONE. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY FORECAST
WHICH WAS BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM NCEP/HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER.
 
BUOY 44630 LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EYEWALL HAS REPORTED A PRESSURE
DROP FROM 987.0 MB AT 18Z TO 968.7 MB AT 19Z. BASE ON THIS DATA THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF FABIAN HAS BEEN ESTIMATED AT 960 MB.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/2100Z 37.5N  59.3W    95 KT
 12HR VT     07/0600Z 40.0N  56.0W    95 KT
 24HR VT     07/1800Z 44.0N  50.5W    80 KT
 36HR VT     08/0600Z 47.5N  45.5W    70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     08/1800Z 51.5N  40.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     09/1800Z 59.0N  30.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     10/1800Z 60.0N  35.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     11/1800Z 58.5N  32.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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